�㷍�㘚���蒈TIME��隞��𡏭����𢒰(銝剛㘚霅臬�冽��)
銝剛㘚霅臬�冽����
嚗駁�𡏭����𢒰嚗�
She Could Lead the Only Chinese Democracy
And that makes Beijing nervous
憟孵��虾�賡�睃�舘虾鈭箔�𣇉��𣈲銝���瘞睲蜓��见振
�躰�枏�𦯀漪�笔�蝺𠰴撐
嚗餌𤌍����嚗�
Cover Story: Championing Taiwan
Presidential front runner Tsai Ing-wen wants to put the island�䏭 interests
first
撠��𢒰��鈭页�𡁜ㄞ憭批蝱��
蝮賜絞憭折�賊�睃�����㷍�㘚����撠�蝱��⏚��羓蔭�䲰�芸��
嚗餃�折�憭扳�辷播
�姯he Next President Of Taiwan��
That�䏭 how Tsai Ing-wen refers to herself. But will the island�䏭 voters
agree?
�蝱���銝衤�隞餌蜇蝯�
�㷍�㘚���糓�蹱見隤滨�箝��雿��糓�坔漣撜嗅飲���豢�烐���峕�誩�𠬍��
嚗餃�扳��播
Emily Rauhala / �蝱��堒𥼚撠� Adam Ferguson / ��嘥蔣
Tsai Ing-wen is making breakfast. The presidential candidate cracks five eggs
and lets them bubble with bacon in the pan. She stacks slices of thick, white
toast. It�䏭 a recipe adapted from British chef Jamie Oliver, but the
ingredients, she can�脌 help but say, are pure Taiwan. The meat comes courtesy
of Happy Pig, a farm near her spare but tasteful Taipei apartment, the bread
from a neighborhood bakery. She offers me an orange. �𥟡rganic,�� she says,
in English. �𦯷nd local, of course.��
�㷍�㘚���迤�銁�𡁏𡟺擗僐���嗘�滨蜇蝯勗�䠷�訾犖��㮖�鈭𥪜�贝�页���諹�堒像摨閖�贝ㄐ�𢒰���畺�覔銝�韏瑕躼�躼雿𣈯𣳽嚗�
�齿�𠹺������蒾�𠧧����𡁶���笔虬��𡃏絲靘�����嗵���𧢲�訫飛�䌊�㘚��见�滚�𡁜�𤑳掖憟批⏚雿𨥈�㇇amie Oliver嚗�
嚗䔶��糓憟孵�滢�滢�讛�隤迎�𣬚�寡矽憌��𣂼惇�䲰��蝝𠉛硃���蝱�����踺���畺�覔靘��䌊��翰璅�鞊研�滩噙�聦嚗諹�嗪𣪧
憟寥��陛�鱓�㭱��匧��㭠���砍�㮖�漤�𩤃�諹�屸熊���糓敺𧼮旦摰園�餈𤑳��睃畺��𡃏眺靘�����憟寥�硺�銝�憿�璈睃�鞟策
��𡢅�𣬚鍂�㘚������𤏸牧嚗𠾼�峕�㗇�毺�嚗��訜�嗡��糓�銁�𧑐������
This is not an average breakfast for the 58-year-old lawyer turned politician
running to become Taiwan�䏭 next President�琷ost days she grabs a coffee and
books it to the car. But it is, in many ways, oh so Tsai. The Taipei-raised,
U.S.- and U.K.-educated former negotiator wrote her doctoral thesis on
international trade law. As a minister, party chair and presidential candidate
(she narrowly lost to two-term incumbent Ma Ying-jeou in the 2012 race), Tsai
gained a reputation for being wonky�𤴆he type who
likes to debate protectionism over early-morning sips of black coffee or
oolong tea.
撠齿䲰�嗘��58甇脯��敺𧼮�见葦頧㕑�𦠜�鞉錇瘝颱犖����蝮賜絞�䠷�訾犖靘�隤迎�屸�坔虾銝齿糓憟孵像撣詨����𡟺擗僐��憟�
�𡁜虜�辶��𧢲�㮖��𡟵��硋衮�銁頠𠹺�𠰴�腈��銝漤�舘迂憭𡁏䲮�𢒰靘�隤迎�屸�蹱�㕑府�虾隞亦�埈糓銝�鞎怎��諹㷍撘譌�漤◢�聢
���嗘�滚銁�枂��烾𩑈憭扼���銁�㘚蝢𡒊�坔飛�𡒊�隢�ế撠�振嚗��𡁜ㄚ隢𡝗��神���糓��钅�𥡝窒��𤘪�𨰻���銁憟寧訜�烵憪�
��銝餃�𢛵��瘞煾�脤豪銝餃葉��蝮賜絞�䠷�訾犖��罸�橒��旦�銁2012撟渡�蝮賜絞憭折�訾葉隞乩�𥕦凝撌株�肽撓蝯虫�擐祈㘚
銋萘蜇蝯梧�㚁���堒�摮賊堺瘣曄�憸刻�𨰝���憟寞糓��車��𨀣迭�銁�𡟺銝𠰴�嗪�穃�硋衮��𣇉�誯�滩薗��嚗諹�煺�㰘劑隢碶��
霅瑚蜓蝢拍�鈭箝��
Now, as the early front runner in Taiwan�䏭 January 2016 presidential election,
her vision for the island is proudly, defiantly, Taiwan-centric. Tsai says she
would maintain the political status quo across the strait with
China�𤫟ssentially, both Taipei and Beijing agreeing to disagree as to which
represents the one, true China, leaving the question of the island�䏭 fate to
the future. But Tsai wants to put Taiwan�䏭 economy, development and culture
first. While Ma and his government have pushed for new
trade and tourism pacts with Beijing�鑧hina accounts for some 40% of Taiwan�䏭
exports�烱sai aims to lessen the island�䏭 dependence on the mainland by
building global ties and championing local brands. �嚹aiwan needs a new model,
�� she tells TIME.
�𣶹�銁嚗諹澈�箏銁2016撟游蝱��蜇蝯勗之�訾葉����睃����嚗諹㷍�㘚����憿䀹艶��皛輯䌊靽∪���摰𡁜𧑐撘瑁矽隞亙蝱
���箸瓲敹����㷍�㘚���牧憟寞�蝬剜��拙硫���𣶹�������蹱����糓隤芾枂��𡑒���𦯀漪敶潭迨��峕�誩�齿䲰雿閗��隞�
銵其葉��衤�萘�嗘�滚�𣬚�隤滨䰻嚗餉酉��𠬍�𡁻�蹱糓��隞��𡏭�諹�䁅����閬贝圾嚗踝�䔶蒂銝娍�𢠃�坔�见雀撊潛��𦶢�讠�嗵策
�𧊋靘�瘙箏�𠾼��雿�嚗諹㷍�㘚����唾�撠�蝱���蝬𤘪�麄���䔄撅閗�����𣇉蔭�䲰擐碶�溻���訜擐祈㘚銋嘥�䔶�𣇉��錇摨𨀣綫
��閗��葉��讠�鞎踵�枏�𡃏��匧�磰降��嚗�葉��见�惩蝱��枂�藁���蓡��銋见�𥕦�嚗㚁�諹㷍�㘚����峕�𥕦�惩撥����𣇉��
���僐���黇璊滚蝱�����䕘�䔶誑��滢�𤾸蝱���滢葉��讠�靘肽陷��憟孵�齿�隞��𡏭�諹牧嚗𠾼��蝱���閬�銝��𧢲鰵璅�
撘譌�溻��
Whether voters share her vision is a question that matters beyond Taipei.
Taiwan is tiny, with a population of only 23 million, but its economy�䕑owered
by electronics, agriculture and tourism�㽣anks about mid-20s in the world by
GDP size, with a GDP per capita about thrice that of China�䏭. Ceded by China
�䏭 Qing dynasty to Japan after the 1894��95 First Sino-Japanese War, colonized
by Tokyo for half a century, then seized by Nationalist forces fleeing the
Communists at the end of the Chinese civil
war, Taiwan has long been a pawn in a regional great game. It is a linchpin for
the U.S. in East Asia alongside Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, and,
most important, it�䏭 the only real democracy in the Chinese-speaking world.
�嚹his election matters because it�䏭 a window into democracy rooted in Chinese
tradition,�� says Lung Ying-tai, an author and social commentator who recently
stepped down as Culture Minister. �輶ecause of Taiwan, the world is able to
envision a different China.��
�蝱����豢�烐糓�炏��峕�誩旦��憿䀹艶嚗峕糓銝�隞嗆楲��𠰴蝱��𦯀誑憭𣇉�鈭𧢲�����蝱�����笔𧑐��硋�𧶏��蘨��匧�拙�
銝厩蓡�𨯬��鈭箏藁嚗䔶��糓蝬𤘪�笔�𣳇𤓖摮鞉平嚗諹噙璆凋誑��𡃏��㗇平���𣈲��琜�䔶誑��见�抒�毺𤩎瘥偦�滢�隤芸銁銝𣇉��
��鍦�滨洵鈭��撟曉�溻���蝱�����见�找犖���𤩎�澆��糓銝剖�讠�銝匧�溻���蝱��銁1894-95��銝剜𠯫����鋡思葉���
皜���嘥𠧧霈枏�䕘�諹◤�𠯫�𧋦畾𡝗�睲���𠰴�衤�𣇉�嚗𥕢�见��銁銝剖�见�扳�蝯鞉������踹�梁𤩎暺函���𧢲�煾豪�𨋍��𤤿策
雿娪�塩���𩑈��煺誑靘��蝱��糓����毺奎��銝剔�銝��𧢲�见�僐���銁蝢𤾸�讠��𨭬鈭𧼮�撅�銝哨��蝱�����𠯫�𧋦����烾��
��𡃏蟮敺贝�枏�𣬚�箸���𣈯枤���兛蝭����凒��滩����糓嚗�蝱��糓�銁�虾隤硺�𣇉�䔶葉�𣈲銝�銝��讠��迤��瘞睲蜓��见振
���僟�桊隞餅���㚚�券𩑈��雿𡏭�����冗��閰閗�硋摱樴齿�匧蝱諡𠺪�𡻕�屸�坔聦�貉�匧���滩�嚗��删�箏���𣂷�𥕢�銝��讠�堒藁嚗諹�枏�𣇉�䔶��䔝隞乩葉�虾����𣇉�箸覔�抅��瘞睲蜓��
�血�删�箏蝱���䔶�𣇉���𦯀誑�喳�譍��衤�滢�璅��銝剖�卝����
Taiwan�䏭 politics irritate and befuddle Beijing. To the ruling Chinese
Communist Party (CCP), Taiwan is the province that got away, a living,
breathing, voting reminder of what could happen to China if the CCP loosens
its grip on its periphery, from Tibet to Xinjiang to Hong Kong. Beijing is
particularly wary of a change in government from Ma�䏭 relatively
China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) to Tsai�䏭 firmly China-skeptic Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP). When Tsai ran for President in 2012, Beijing
blasted her, without actually naming her, as a �𦭛roublemaker�� and
�𦨴plittist�吲�鑧CP-speak reserved for Dalai Lama�𢡠evel foes. �𦯷 DPP
government means uncertainty for cross-strait ties,�� says Lin Gang, a Taiwan
specialist at Shanghai Jiao Tong University�䏭 School of International and
Public Affairs.
�蝱����錇瘝餉�枏�𦯀漪�笔��望�鍦��蓡�苷�滩圾��撠滢葉��见�梁𤩎暺其�隤迎��蝱��糓銝��钅��韏啁���嚗䔶��糓
撠滢葉��𧢲暑��毺�毺���鞾�圝����𥅾銝剖�钅�����齿䲰擐蹱葛��镼輯�誩�𦠜鰵��蝑厰�墧瓲敹��𧑐������峕綉��嚗�虾��
���䔄��毺�鈭卝����𦯀漪撠齿䲰�蝱����錇甈𠺪�𣬚眏撠滢葉��讠㮾撠滚�见���擐祆錇摨𡏭憚�𤜯��撠滢葉��衤�脲���烐�桃�
瘞煾�脤豪嚗峕����聢憭𡝗�埝�𡒊��见漲���㷍�㘚���銁2012撟游��貊蜇蝯梁����辷���𦯀漪��𣇉�嗆�埝�㗇���漤�枏��
嚗�㭱��𡡞*撠滚旦憭扯���𢆡��𠺪�諹牧憟寞糓銝��卝�屸獄�抵ˊ�㰘���齿�硔���鋆�銝餌儔���𨧀�婙�𥪜銁�梁𤩎暺函�銵�
隤硺葉嚗屸�嗘�𥡝店撠���磰陷����偦�嗘�撅斤�𡁶�隞�訽��隞餅�蹱䲰銝𦠜絲鈭日�𡁜之摮詨�钅�𥡝���砍�梢�靝�摮賊堺��
�蝱���见�坔��振��堒瓷隤迎�𠾼�峕�煾�脤豪�錇摨靝誨銵函��糓�拙硫��靝���銝滨Ⅱ摰𡁏�扼����
To the U.S., which is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to come to the island��
s aid if it�䏭 attacked, Taiwan is a longtime friend and unofficial ally,
though the strength of that friendship is being tested by China�䏭 rise.
Washington worries that Taiwan�䏭 people, especially its youth, are growing war
ier of China, and that any conflict between the two might draw in the U.S.
�乪hat this election has done is crystallize the changes, the shift in public
opinion,�� says Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan scholar at Davidson College in North
Carolina and the author of Why Taiwan Matters. �𦔒 don�脌 think cross-strait
relations are going to be easy going forward, and that�䏭 not something U.S.
policymakers want to hear.��
撠滨�𤾸�衤�隤迎�峕覔��𠾼�𠰴蝱���靝�瘜𨰻�页��銁�蝱���堒�甇血�𥟇𤫇��羓���瘜�銝页�屸���娪俈�蝱�����蝱��糓
蝢𤾸�钅𩑈��笔�钅�血�屸�墧迤撘讐�笔�页���条恣�拙�衤�钅�枏�贝盲��撘瑕漲甇��堒�銝剖�见�𥡝絲����撽𨰜���虾摨𨀣�𥪜�
�蝱��犖瘞𡢅�𣬚鸌�ê̌�糓撟渲�蓥犖嚗��齿䲰銝剖�讠�霅行�鍦��鞉撓��鞾�矋�諹���抵��銋钅�梶�銵萘��虾�賣���羓�𤾸��
�鸊���脖�����埈�剹�𠰴蝱���箔�閖�滩��页�Áhy Taiwan Matters嚗劐��㮾��蝢𤾸�见�堒㨃蝢�靘����墧�蝬�
璉桀之摮賂�㇄avidson College嚗㗇�蹱��遙�䪸暻梹�𠄎helley Rigger嚗㕑牧嚗𠾼�屸�坔聦�貉�㕑�𤘪���厩��㺿
霈𠰴�琿�𥪜�吔���齿�惩枂瘞烐�𤩺踎憛羓�蝘餃�𨰝�色�行�睲�滩�滨�箸𦻖銝衤����拙硫��靝����凒��齿晾嚗諹�屸�嗘�齿糓蝢�
��讠��錇蝑硋�摰朞���唾��賢����𨭬镼踴����
The KMT has yet to formally nominate a candidate for the top job, but the
favorite is Hung Hsiu-chu, the legislature�䏭 female deputy speaker. Nicknamed
�𦧺ittle hot pepper�� because of her diminutive stature and feisty manner,
Hung, 67, would be a contrast to the more professorial Tsai should she get the
KMT�䏭 nod. �𦔒 don�脌 think [Tsai] is a strong opponent,�� Hung tells TIME.
Yet the DPP�䏭 choice, who has already started pressing the flesh islandwide,
is spirited too. �憕eople have this vision of me as a conservative person,
but I�联 actually quite adventurous,�� she says. And possessed of a sharp
sense of humor�癳hen I compliment her cooking, Tsai looks at me with mock
exasperation: �𦔒 have a Ph.D., you know.��
��𧢲�煾豪��𣇉�園���𧊋甇��𤩺�𣂼�滨蜇蝯勗�䠷�訾犖嚗䔶��𤌍��齿�鋡怎�见末��撠望糓蝡𧢲�閖堺���堺�𩑈瘣芰�������删��
頨急�𣂼���讛��末���扳聢�諹◤撠��箝���讛麾璊鉝�滨�瘣芰���嚗�67甇莎�㚁�����𦦵㬢暺函���𣂼�㵪����������
摮貉��敶Z情���㷍�㘚�������𣶹憿航�㛖�撠齿�𢛵��瘣芰�����烐�隞��䁅��銵函內嚗𠾼�峕�睲�滩�滨�箄㷍�㘚���糓銝�雿�
撘瑞�撠齿�卝�溻���嗉�䕘�峕�煾�脤豪���䠷�訾犖撌脩�枏ㄚ瘞��䀹�嚗�銁�典蝱���𧑐撅閖�讠奎�豢暑��𨰻���㷍�㘚���牧
嚗𠾼�峕�劐�𥕢犖隤滨�箸�烐糓銝��衤�嘥���鈭綽�䔶���穃�嗅祕�糓敺��𥕦�㘾麬���溻��憟寞�劐�蝔桃��⏚��撟賡�䀹�麨�
���訜��𤏸�𡁶�𤾸旦��撱朞�脲�嚗�旦�鍂��䂿�𤑳�隤墧除���脲�望�坿牧嚗𠾼�峕�穃虾�糓����匧�𡁜ㄚ摮訾�滨�����
Tsai grew up in a home on Taipei�䏭 Zhongshan Road North, a street named after
Taiwan�䏭 symbolic father, Sun Yat-sen, the Chinese revolutionary who helped
overthrow the Qing and co-founded the KMT. Her own father, an auto mechanic
turned property developer, was of the Confucian kind: he encouraged her to
study hard but also expected her, as the youngest daughter, to devote herself
to his care. �𦔒 was not considered a kid that would be successful in my
career,�� says Tsai.
�㷍�㘚���銁�蝱��㛖�銝剖控��𡑒楝�𩑈憭改�屸�蹱�肽�埈糓隞仿仪�𦶢�綫蝧餅���腈����鞟�见�𧢲�煾豪銝西�𣇉�箏�讠���摮恍��
隞坔𦶢��溻��憟寧���閬芣糓銝�雿滢耨頠𦠜�撣恬���䔶���鞟�箏�笔𧑐��讠䔄����隞𡝗㗁镼脖��鍦振�脲�喉���峕�𥡝㷍�㘚
�����鍂��蠘��㮾嚗䔶�銋��蠘迂頨怎�箏�誩戊�垍��㷍�㘚���虾隞亦�坔銁��閬芾澈�羓�折“隞硔���㷍�㘚���牧嚗𠾼�峕��
撠𤩺��嗘�齿糓銝��贝◤隤滨�箸𧊋靘�����㗇�𣂼停��摮拙�僐����
After attending university in Taiwan, she studied law at Cornell in New York
because, she says, it seemed the place for a young woman who �菏anted to have
a revolutionary life.�� From there she went to the London School of Economics,
where she earned her Ph.D., also in law, in less than three years. �嚹hat
pleased my father,�� she says. When he called her home, she obliged, returning
to Taiwan to teach and, in 1994, to enter government in a series of high-
profile but mostly policy-oriented roles in the Fair Trade Commission,
National Security Council and Mainland Affairs Council.
�銁�蝱��之摮貊佅璆剖�䕘��旦��滚�蝝鞟�撌𧼮熒銋���憭批飛��磰�瘜訫�页���删�箏旦隤迎�屸�蹱糓銝��卝�峕�喲�𡡞仪�𦶢
�抒����暑�滨�撟渲�訫戊摮鞱府�縧���𧑐�䲮��銋见�䕘��旦��滚��急襥�錇瘝餌�𤘪�笔飛�堺�𤫇霈�瘜訫飛��𡁜ㄚ嚗䔶蒂銝�
銝匧僑銝滚�撠梁㬢敺堒飛雿溻��憟寡牧嚗𠾼�屸�躰�𤘪�𤑳�閬芸���䁅���溻��憟寥�萄�䂿�閬芰��𤩺�肽�𥪜�𧼮蝱��������
憭批飛��蹱㮾銝血銁1994撟湧�脣�交錇摨頣��枂隞餃�砍像鈭斗�枏�𥪜摱������见�㗇���𢠃烵憪娍�蝑劐�蝟餃�烾�滩�����
�錇蝑硋�𤾸�𤑳��瑚�溻��
Even close supporters say Tsai was, and perhaps still is, an unlikely
politician, especially for the DPP. Taiwan�䏭 opposition party was forged in
struggle and led by veterans of the democracy movement�𤤗 fight Tsai mostly
missed. The Kaohsiung Incident in 1979�𤤗 human-rights rally that was
violently broken up by security forces, galvanizing the democracy movement��
took place while Tsai was overseas, cocooned in the ivory tower. If the
archetypal DPP operative is a bare-knuckle street fighter, Tsai is an Olympic
fencer�㽣estrained and precise.
撠梢��迂憭朞扛餈𤏸㷍�㘚�����𣈲�����質�滨�綽�諹㷍�㘚���糓銝�雿漤�𧼮�詨�讠��錇瘝颱犖��嚗𣬚鸌�ê̌撠望�煾�脤豪��
閮���頨怎�箏銁��𡡞豪��瘞煾�脤豪嚗�銁�蝱���睲蜓�见�閧�憟桅洛�𡒊�衤葉�删�㕑�峕�琜�𣬚眏瘞睲蜓�见�閧����菜�
��鞟�页�屸�蹱糓銝��聦�㷍�㘚���𥲤�𡒊���敶嫘��1979撟湧�㗛���蝢𡡞�堒雀鈭衤辣嚗𣬚訜銝��聦鈭箸�𢠃�𡃏�屸�剛郎�錇�鱓
雿齿𠂔��偦��袇嚗諹���䔶�瞈��䠀鈭��蝱���瘞睲蜓�见�𤏪�諹㷍�㘚���訜��甇�銁��见�𡝗�摮賂���堒�鞊∠�坔�𠉛�摨�
霅瑯���𥅾隤芣�煾�脤豪���詨�衤犖���糓韏斗�讠征�箲��銵烾�擛亙ㄚ嚗諹㷍�㘚�����糓銝�雿滚尼��堒龪�讠�𡁶���滩�枏振
嚗朞䌊��穃�见����移蝣箏�雿溻��
She stepped into the spotlight in 2008, becoming party chair when the DPP found
itself booted from office, with its chief Chen Shui-bian, the outgoing
President, later convicted of corruption. While she possessed a deep knowledge
of policy, Tsai did not then seem like a leader. �侻he used to sort of hide
behind me when we went door to door,�� recalls legislator Hsiao Bi-khim, a
longtime colleague and friend. �憕eople compared her to a lost bunny in the
forest, with wolves surrounding, both from within the party and outside.
�銁2008撟湔�煾�脤豪憭勗縧�錇甈𠺪�諹���滨蜇蝯梢䒰瘞湔��辶�朖�剛痕瘙嗵蔽韏瑁迄������嚗諹㷍�㘚����誩�乩�����
����页�峕�鞟�箸�煾�脤豪銝餃葉����𣇉�嗉㷍�㘚����齿䲰�錇蝑𡝗���㗇楛摨衣��𦁈閫��䔶��訜��憟寥��銝滚�譍�雿漤�睃��
鈭箝���𩑈��煺誑靘��糓憟孵�䔶�贝���见�讠�蝡𧢲�訫�𥪜摱�𨯙蝢𡒊鐦隤芥�䔶誑��滨訜��穃�烐𤔅摰嗆𤔅���縧��𡏭赤��嚗�旦���
暺墧�頨脣銁��𤏸澈敺䎚�溻���峕�劐�𥕦耦摰孵旦�箔��见銁璉格�𡑒ㄐ餈瑁楝���𥪜�琜�諹◤暺典�扯��豪憭𣇉��𣄽蝢文����
����
After an unsuccessful 2010 mayoral bid, Tsai ran for, and also lost, the
presidency in 2012. Jason Liu, a veteran DPP speechwriter, says now that the
campaign did not �𦨴ell�� Tsai well enough. The ideas were strong, but the
delivery left �筂istance between her and the voters.�� Ironically, it was not
until her concession speech that Tsai seemed to connect emotionally with
Taiwan�䏭 citizens. �陖ou may cry,�� she told the tearful crowd. �輶ut don�脌
lose heart.��
2010撟湛�諹㷍�㘚���������𩑈�貉�匧仃�⏚嚗�銁2012撟港���㘾��⏚�訜�貊蜇蝯晞��瘞煾�脤豪鞈�楛����賢�匧遣敹�
銵函內嚗𣬚訜����蝡園�貊蜇�典�齿䲰�諹�屸啹�滩㷍�㘚����坔�𧢲�敹蛛���𡁜�𦯀�滚�惩末嚗偦�𣇉�嗆���㕑迂憭𡁜末暺𧼮��
嚗䔶��糓�嘑銵䔶�𢠃���糓�諹�㯄�豢�烐�笔���㗇�頝嗪𣪧�溻��隢瑕��𧑐嚗䔶��凒����烾�豢�蠘�嚗諹㷍�㘚����滢撮銋舘��
�蝱��犖瘞𤑳𤩎������煺�羓����僐��憟孵�滚鉄��埈�𡁏偌��蝢斤䔿銵函內嚗𠾼�䔶�惩虾隞亙揑瘜��䔶�銝滩�賣援瘞�����
A lot has changed since 2012. Eleven hours after making eggs, with a policy
meeting, a cross-country train ride and a harbor tour behind her, Tsai is
addressing a couple hundred students at a university in the southern city of
Kaohsiung, a DPP stronghold. She�䏭 in lecture mode, at ease, talking about
her party�䏭 economic plans: stronger regional links and a focus on innovation
to support small businesses. �𣿯ow many of you went to Taipei for the
Sunflower protests?�� she asks in Mandarin. At least a third raise their hands.
2012撟港�见�𣬚��蝱���峕風蝬㮖�閮勗�𡁏㺿霈𨳍���㷍�㘚����舘�见�𣬚�11�见�𤩺�敺䕘�峕風蝬㮖�銝��聦�錇蝑𡝗�霅�
���𨰹銋㗛�㗛閠敺𧼮�𦯀�頝臬�穃�𨰜��蝺𦠜𦻖��烾�脰�屸�㗛�蝣潮�撠舘汗��憟寞𠽌�𥪜�堒蝱���煾�脤豪����漤緤擃㗛�嚗�
��烐彍�蓡雿滚之摮貊�毺䔄銵冽�磰牧��憟嫣誑銝�瘣曇�閖������玨璅∪�𧶏�屸𤥃餈啗�埈�煾�脤豪��蝬𤘪�蠘��𧞄嚗𡁜�惩撥��
��罸�梶����琜�䔶蒂�𡁶�行䲰�𣈲���肟�鰵��撠誩�讠�𤘪�麄��憟寧鍂銝剜��岷��誩銁�聦摮貊�麄�䔶�惩�睲�衤葉��匧�𡁜�睲犖
�縧�蝱��堒���𣳇�𤾸云�蒾��摮賊�页�麄�滨𣶹�聦�秐撠烐�劐�匧�銋衤���摮貊�蠘�㕑絲鈭���卝��
Taiwan�䏭 students were once seen as apathetic. But during spring last year,
Taipei was swept up by thousands-strong demonstrations over a services pact
with China. Student and civic groups worried that the deal could hurt Taiwan�䏭
economy and leave it vulnerable to pressure from Beijing. They felt it was
pushed through without adequate public scrutiny. The Sunflower Movement, as it
came to be called after a florist donated bundles of the blooms, grew into a
grassroots revolt, culminating in the March 18 storming of the legislature.
�蝱���摮貊�罸�𤾸縧銝�摨西◤閬𣇉�箇㮾�訜�瑟�𨬭��雿��糓�銁�縧撟渡��坾憭抬��蝱��堒�鋡急彍隞亙�閮����𡑒降��瘛�
瘝𡜐���滚�滩��葉��讠偷閮�����滚�躰窒��枏�磰降��摮貊�蠘���祆�穃�㗛�娍�娍���坔�见�磰降���瑕拿�蝱���𤘪���諹��
�蝱���蝬𤘪�笔�堒��䲰銝剖�见�枏�𥡝�諹�𠰴�𡑒��撘晞��隞硋�睲�蠘�滨�綽�峕�滩窒��磰降���綫��蓥蒂瘝埝�厩�㯄�𡡞�拍訜��
�祆�穃祟霅啜��憭芷蒾���见�閙糓瘞煾�梶敞蝛滨���㛖�����齿遛嚗�銁3���18�𠯫�坔予銝���㕑�嗪�脩�𧢲�閖堺嚗屸�见��
��蝔梯��糓�眏�䲰��㛖���罸�㮖�雿滩�鞎拇�鞱���憭折�誩云�蒾�����䭾迨�𦶢��溻��
The movement was grounded in questions of social justice. Since coming to
power in 2008, Ma has argued that cross-strait commerce is the key to the
island�䏭 fortunes, signing 21 trade deals. Yet young people in particular
wonder if the deals benefit only Big Business on both sides of the strait.
They say rapprochement with Beijing has left them none the richer, and agonize
over the high cost of housing, flat wages and the possibility of local jobs
going to China. A sign during a protest outside the Presidential Palace on
March 30 last year captured the mood: �乪e don�脌 have another Taiwan to sell.
��
�坔�钅�见�閧�銝餉�閮湔�撠望糓蝷暹�甇�儔���䌊敺𧼮�𧢲�煾豪2008撟游嘑�錇隞乩�嚗𣬚偷閮�鈭�21�见�拙硫鞎踵�枏��
摰𡄯�屸收�㘚銋苷蜓撘萄�拙硫����璆剖�靘��糓�蝱�����𣈯枤��鞎∪�䔶�皞僐��雿��糓撟渲�蓥犖鞈芰�煾�䠷�隢𤥁膩嚗䔶��
�𤏸�滨�粹�嗘�𥡝窒��枏�磰降�蘨��匧�拙硫��憭扯瓷��条㬢�⏚��隞硋�𤏸牧��𦯀漪����諹圾�錇蝑碶蒂瘝埝�㕑�枏僑頛蓥犖霈𠰴��
撖峕�㚁���滩�諹�㮖�硋�穃�堒𤌴�䲰擃䀹��嫘���𨀣趙���𢞁鞈���隞亙�𠰴銁�𧑐撌乩�𨀣����虾�賣�憭勗�銝剖�讠��虾��
�扼���銁�縧撟�3���30�𠯫�䲰蝮賜絞摨𨅯�𣇉���𡑒降銝哨�峕�匧�𧢲�躰�墧��賣�閙�㗇㟲擃𠉛�蝷暹�瘞𥕦�㵪�𠾼��蝱��蘨
��劐��页�諹都鈭�撠望�雴�嚗���
The emphasis on quality of life, and not just macro-indicators, is good news
for Tsai. Her vision for a more economically independent Taiwan did not sway
the electorate in 2012 but may now have stronger appeal. The KMT, bruised by
the Sunflower protests and then battered by fed-up voters in midterm polls
last fall, is trying to remake itself as a more populist party. Timothy Yang,
a former Foreign Minister who is now vice president of the National Policy
Foundation, the KMT�䏭 think tank, says the party stands by its cross-strait
record. But even Yang, a KMT stalwart, is keen to address the issue of equity:
�嚹he benefits of this interaction with mainland China should be shared with
the general public.��
�蝱��冗��撠齿䲰���暑��鞈芰���滩�吔�諹�屸�𧼮����撘瑁矽摰讛�蝬𤘪�����辷���滩㷍�㘚����隤芣糓隞嗅末鈭卝��憟�
撣峕�𥟇�㯄�牐��讠�𤘪�煺�𦠜凒��删崕蝡讠��蝱���屸�𣇉�園�坔�讠�敹萄銁2012撟港蒂瘝埝�㕑牧��閖�豢�𡢅�䔶�嚗𣬚𣶹�銁
�虾�賣凒��匧𢙺撘訫�䜘����𧢲�煾豪�銁憭芷蒾���见�蓥葉��堒���滚肟嚗�銁�縧撟渡�见予����煺葉�貉�劐葉����滚漲鋡恍��
瘞睲誑�貊巨��躰�瓐���𣶹�銁嚗��𧢲�煾豪閰血�𡝗�𡃏䌊撌勗�漤�䭾�𣂷��𧢲�𤑳硃���錇暺具���𤌍��齿�𥪯遙��𧢲�煾豪�惣摨怒��
��见振�錇蝑硋抅��烐��誩��𪆓鈭钅𩑈����滚�碶漱�券𩑈璆𢠃�脫溶���笔�𡑒赤��隤芷�橒�䎚���𧢲�煾豪�����嗅�拙硫��
蝡见聦�溻��雿��朖靘踹�𤩺�𢠃�脫溶�蹱見��摰𡁶���𧢲�煾豪�摱嚗䔶�毺�梯◎�䲰閫�捱�砍像��霅圈�䎚��隞𤥁牧嚗𠾼���拙硫
鈭鍦�閧��⏚��𠺪�峕�㕑府閬�����冽�穃�曹澈嚗���
Tsai should easily carry traditional DPP support: much of the south, the youth
vote, and those who identify as Taiwanese and who are not a part of the
elite that came from China after the CCP victory in 1949. The DPP�䏭 missing
link is Big Business, which supports the KMT and closer ties with the mainland,
where many Taiwan companies are invested. Tsai recognizes that this is a
constituency she needs to woo but doesn�脌 seem clear as to how, beyond saying,
�𥟡ur challenge is to produce something that is sensible to both sides
without being considered as a traitor to the friends we used to be with when
we were an opposition party.��
�㷍�㘚����敺堒��喟絞瘞煾�脤豪���𣈲��銝虫�漤𧙗嚗䔶�见���烾�券�豢�㻫��撟渲�閖�貊巨������厰���𥡝�滚�諹䌊撌望糓
�蝱��犖嚗諹�䔶�齿糓1949撟港葉��见�梁𤩎暺典�嘥⏚敺䔶��䌊銝剖�讠�蝎曇㘚隞賢�僐���嗉�䕘�峕�煾�脤豪蝻箔�讛��之隡�
璆剔����琜���删�箏蝱���璆剖之��𤩺�閗��之�烵嚗諹���嗡葉�嗘�𥕦之鞎∪�睃�𡁜�𦠜𣈲����𧢲�煾豪嚗䔶誑��𡃏��之�烵
撱箇�𧢲凒蝺𠰴�����靝����㷍�㘚����毺�閫���蹱糓憟孵������縧�𢙺撘閧�銝�蝢日�豢�𡢅�䔶��糓撠齿䲰憒�雿閖�脰��
銝行�埝�匧云皜�璆𡁶���硋�譌��憟寡牧嚗𠾼�峕�穃�𤑳���烐��糓閬��縧�肟�𣳇�蹱䲮�質�滨�箏�����蝡见聦嚗����滩�質◤
��穃�穃銁��擧�����见�贝�滨�箸糓��𥕦�鉝����
That will be hard. The KMT has long argued that it, not the DPP, is best
qualified to run the economy, which, corruption apart, did not do well under
Chen. Tsai�䏭 supporters concede that many citizens feel the same way�𤴆hat
the DPP can be an effective opposition but not administration. �嚹he KMT has
always portrayed itself as more suited to guide the economy,�� says J. Michael
Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with the University of Nottingham�䏭
China Policy Institute and a senior officer at Tsai�䏭 Thinking Taiwan
Foundation. �嚹here�䏭 this stubborn perception that a DPP government would
be bad for business.��
�蹱糓�𤌴�𧙗����烐�����𧢲�煾豪�𩑈��煺蜓撘菔䌊撌望�娍�煾�脤豪�凒���𩑈瘝餌�蝬𤘪����陘�園䒰瘞湔��嘑�錇����罸膄
鈭�鞎芣情嚗𣬚�𤘪�蠘”�𣶹銝虫�滚末���㷍�㘚�����𣈲����銋笔�峕�𧶏�𣬚Ⅱ撖行�劐�𥟇�𤑳䔿隤滨�箸�煾�脤豪�虾�糓銝��讠迂
�瑞���滚�漤豪嚗䔶�銝齿糓�嘑�錇暺具��隢曆�瞍W之摮訾葉��𧢲錇蝑𣇉�𠉛弦銝剖�鞈�楛��𠉛弦�摱�辶撠讛㘚�抅��烐�鞈�楛
銝餌恣撖��𣂼���㇇. Michael Cole嚗㕑牧嚗𠾼���𧢲�煾豪��𡃏䌊撌望�讐鼓�糓銝��𧢲凒�拙��蜓撠𡒊�𤘪�毺��錇暺具��
�𡖂憭碶���劐�蝔桀�萄�𣇉������㫲鞊∴�諹�滨�箸�煾�脤豪�嘑�錇撠滢�璆凋�滚⏚����
It�䏭 a narrative that the CCP backs and may well float as the campaign
progresses, either directly, in China�䏭 state-controlled press, or
indirectly, through, for instance, its connections in Taiwan�䏭 business
community. �輶eijing is going to want to make a point through all sorts of
channels, including Big Business, that cross-strait relations will not be as
smooth if you vote a government into power that has not accepted the foundation
that has underpinned developments of the last eight years,�� says Alan
Romberg, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C.,
think tank.
�嗵車隢𤥁矽��堒�銝剖�见�梁𤩎暺函��𣈲��嚗䔶蒂銝𥪯�𢠃辶��烾�豢����脣�蓥�齿𪃾鋡急�见枂���梁𤩎暺典虾�賜凒�𦻖�𧑐
�⏚�鍂銝剖�𧢲綉����慦㘾�𥪜蔣�𣳽�貉�㚁�峕�𡝗糓��𤘪𦻖�𧑐�誯�𦒘葉��贝��蝱���璆剔�𣬚����僐��蝢𤾸�贝虾摨𨀣惣摨�
�蟮瘙�璉桃�𠉛弦銝剖�嚗𠄎timson Center嚗㕑��楛摮貉��摰孵�厩�橘�㇁lan Romberg嚗㕑牧嚗𠾼���𦯀漪撠����
�𤾸之隡�璆剔�匧�蝔桃恣�㮖��𤥃餈啣�嗥�见聦嚗諹”��舘��糓�蝱��犖瘞𤏸�㮖��衤�齿𦻖��烾�𤾸縧�怠僑�拙硫�䔄撅訫抅
蝷𡒊��錇摨𨅯嘑�錇嚗��拙硫��靝����䔄撅訫���齿�憒��𣶹�銁銝�璅�像������
Beijing has never been receptive to a DPP government, but it is particularly
negative now. Since coming to power in 2012, China�䏭 leader Xi Jinping has
proved himself to be more assertive and nationalistic than most expected, a
man not eager to compromise. Last September he told a delegation from the
island that China and Taiwan might be one day be reunited under Hong Kong�䏭
�㙟ne country, two systems�� formula, which is rejected by both the KMT and
DPP and, surveys consistently show, the vast
majority of Taiwan�䏭 people. This May, Xi warned again about the danger of
�𦨴eparatist forces�吲�𤤗 comment widely interpreted as a swipe at the DPP.
��𦯀漪撠齿䲰瘞煾�脤豪�錇甈羓��𦻖��堒漲��睲�銝漤�矋�䔶��𣶹�銁撠文�嗆���鞎𣳇𢒰���见漲��銝剖�钅�睃�𦒘犖蝧坿�穃像
�銁2012撟湔�峕�𠰴�䕘�諹�㗇�舘䌊撌望�𥪜�𣇉�峕�喳�讐����凒��䭾郎�𪃾嚗�葆��㗇凒撘瑞���瘞烐�譍蜓蝢抵𠧧敶抬�峕糓銝�
�衤�滩�閙�枏戎��𠉛�鈭箝���縧撟港�脲���䔶�硋�滢��衤��䌊�蝱���隞�”��䁅牧嚗䔶葉��见��蝱��虾��𥟇繧�鍂擐蹱葛
�䔶���见�拙��滨�璅∪�讐絞銝�嚗𣬚�嗉�屸�坔㭱�糓銝��见�𧢲�煾豪��峕�煾�脤豪�賢�滚�滨��䲮獢��諹�䔶�娍�𤏸矽銋煺�
�漤*蝷綽�𣬚�訫之憭𡁏彍���蝱��犖瘞𤑳�⊥�閙𦻖��𨰜��隞𠰴僑鈭娍���𣬚�坿�穃像�滚漲霅血�𨳍���鋆�銝餌儔�𨋍��䜘�齿�
撣嗡����暒�麬�����蹱挾隤芾�墧芦�滩◤憭𣇉�諹帑��讠�箏�齿�煾�脤豪���𢆡��𨳍��
Cross-strait relations are managed according to the so-called 1992 Consensus
reached by Beijing and Taipei (then also governed by the KMT), a formula the
KMT�䏭 Yang calls �𦡞 masterpiece of ambiguity.�� Under the 1992 Consensus,
both sides acknowledge that there is only one China, but without specifying
what exactly that means. This, Yang says, has allowed the KMT to move forward
on bilateral trade, transport and tourism without being forced to address
whether �㙟ne China�� is the China imagined by
Beijing or by Taipei.
�拙硫��靝��糓瘝餌��𤌍��齿覔��𡁜�𦯀漪���蝱��梹��訜���箏�𧢲�煾豪�嘑�錇嚗劐�钅�𤘪�雓���銋苷���梯�矋�屸�蹱糓銝�
�贝◤��𧢲�煾豪��璆𢠃�脫溶敶W捆�箝�峕芋蝟𦠜�抒�銝�憭折�雿栶�滨��錇蝑硔���覔��帋�苷���梯�矋�屸�蹱䲮�㗁隤滚蘨���
銝��衤葉��页�䔶�銝滩”��𦒘��衤葉��讠�蝣箏���誩鉄��璆𢠃�脫溶隤迎�屸�躰�枏�𧢲�煾豪�銁�綫撅閖�䠷�𡃏窒��瓐��鈭日��
��諹��㗇䲮�𢒰敺𦯀誑��硋�烾�脣�𤏪�諹�䔶�漤�鋡怨翰�縧��䂿�𢛵�䔶��衤葉��卝�滨弦蝡�糓��𦯀漪��𡝗糓�蝱��堒��𤌍銝剔�
銝剖�卝��
The DPP has long promoted de jure independence. The first clause in its
charter calls for �𦭛he establishment of an independent sovereignty known as
the Republic of Taiwan,�� not the Republic of China, Taiwan�䏭 official name.
This platform resonates with the DPP base but is increasingly untenable given
China�䏭 economic clout and growing power on the world stage. While the first
DPP presidency under Chen was hardly a break from the past, it did see a
cooling with Beijing. Things warmed again under Ma.
Lin, the Taiwan expert at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, says Tsai is somewhere
between Chen and Ma: �𦔒f she wins the election, she will not pursue Taiwan in
dependence. But she will not promote the development of the cross-strait
relationship as Ma Ying-jeou did.��
瘞煾�脤豪�𤾸縧�𩑈��煺誑靘��綫��訫蝱���瘜閧��崕蝡卝��瘞煾�脤豪暺函雇蝚砌�璇嗪𤥃��汿��遣蝡衤蜓甈羓崕蝡贝䌊銝餌�
�蝱���勗���卝�㵪�諹�屸�𧼮蝱���甇��誩�贝�煺葉�虾瘞穃�卝���坔�讠�见聦�㬢敺埈�煾�脤豪�抅�𧋦�𥿢��隤滚�䕘��㭱�銁
銝剖�讠�蝬𤘪�笔祕��𥟇�鞾𩑈���葉��见銁銝𣇉�諹�𧼮蝱銝𠰴�𥡝絲銋衤�页�諹�𠹺�頞羓�⊥�訫祕�𣶹���条恣�䒰瘞湔�銝餅錇��
��毺�瘞煾�脤豪�錇摨𡏭�罸�𤾸縧���錇蝑碶蒂�∪云憭批榆�ê̌嚗䔶�頝笔�𦯀漪����靝�蝣箏祕頞典�穃�瑟楚��擐祈㘚銋苷蜓�錇
����笔�拙硫��靝��滚漲��硋�硔��銝𦠜絲鈭日�𡁜之摮貊��蝱����振��堒瓷隤迎�諹㷍�㘚����蝡见聦隞𧢲䲰擐祈㘚銋嘥�屸䒰
瘞湔�銋钅�瓐��隞𤥁牧嚗𠾼�����𨅯旦��嗪�賂��旦銝齿�餈賣��蝱��崕蝡卝��雿�憟嫣�煺�齿��誯收�㘚銋苷�璅�綫��訫��
撗賊�靝����䔄撅𨰻����
Tsai stresses that she will not alter the politics between Taiwan and China,
but she is vague about whether she will repeal the DPP�䏭 independence clause.
And unification? That, she says, �𦤹s something you have to resolve��
democratically�㻳t is a decision to be made by the people here.��
�㷍�㘚���撥隤踹旦銝齿��㺿霈𠰴蝱���䔶葉��衤�钅�梶��錇瘝駁�靝�嚗䔶�撠齿䲰�糓�炏�伃��𧼮蝱�崕璇脲��㭱�糓靘萘�嗥雁
��璅∠�𨳍���秐�䲰蝯曹��𢅛嚗笔旦隤迎�𠾼�屸��糓敹�����梶眏瘞睲蜓蝔见�讛圾瘙箇�鈭𧢲���婙�娪�蹱糓銝��见�����梶眏
甇文𧑐��鈭箸�睲��𡁶�瘙箏�𠾼����
Hung, Tsai�䏭 potential KMT opponent, says the DPP flag bearer needs to
clarify her stance on cross-strait relations. �憕eople ask her, �熎hat is the
status quo?�� and she can�脌 say anything specific,�� says Hung. The KMT�䏭
Yang offers a metaphor: �輶efore you harvest, you have to plow the land,
transplant the seedlings, fertilize; all the work �� has been done by the KMT,
and yet they are going to harvest the crop?��
�㷍�㘚����瞈喳銁撠齿�𧢲揪蝘���隤迎�峕�煾�脤豪����諹���钅�閬�皜�璆𡁜𧑐�𤥃��𤾸旦撠滚�拙硫��靝���蝡见聦��瘣芰�
��隤迎�𠾼��之摰嗅�誩旦�𡒊雁���𣶹���糓隞�暻潭�𤩺�嘅�麄�𧶏��旦�㭱瘝埝�厩策�琿�𠉛���墧�剹���滚�𧢲�煾豪��璆𢠃��
瘛餌鍂銝��𧢲�𥪜鸘嚗𠾼��銁�𤣰�𠧧銋见�㵪�諹����訫𧑐���偘蝔柴���鴌�伐�𥟇���厩�撌乩�鎿�色�阡�賢歇蝬栞◤��𧢲�煾豪
摰峕�𣂷�嚗𣬚�嗉�䔶�硋�𤑳𣶹�銁�㭱�唾��𤣰�𠧧嚗麄��
Tsai believes she will win that right. Several days before I return to my
Beijing base, over Taiwan-Japanese fusion in Kaohsiung, Tsai is quietly
confident that she will gain the trust of Taiwan�䏭 voters and secure victory,
whatever Beijing might think. She puts a final piece of tuna on my plate. It��
s from Pingtung County in the south, where she was born. �𦒈o back to Beijing,
�� says Tsai, �𦡞nd tell them you were served by the next President of Taiwan.
��
�犔ith reporting by Zoher Abdoolcarim, Gladys Tsai and Natalie Tso/Taipei
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